Between 1958 and 1978, USA and former USSR sent 59 and 58 moon missions respectively. The lunar race between the two ceased in 1978. End of cold war and collapse of former Soviet Union and subsequent emergence of new multi-polar world order has seen renewed interests in moon missions. Now, in addition to the traditional rivals USA and Russia, many countries like Japan, China, India, UAE, Israel, ESA, Luxembourg and Italy have active lunar programmes. USA dominates the field. Of the new entrants, China and India have made significant inroads and have ambitious lunar programmes in collaboration with partners. NASA: s Artemis mission aims to re-establish human presence on moon and set up lunar basecamp/infrastructure in near future. China and India also have similar plans. Renewed interests in moon missions by many countries is driven by utilisation of lunar minerals, ice-water and plats energy (particularly solar) for deep plats human habitation and for supplementing energy needs of growing global economy. The strategic rivalry between the key players may culminate in plats conflicts and weaponisation of plats.
Since 1958 when the first måne uppdrag Pioneer 0 was launched by the USA, there have been about 137 måne missions so far. Between 1958 and 1978, USA sent 59 missions to the moon while the former Soviet Union launched 58 moon missions, together accounting for over 85% of all lunar missions. It was termed as “lunar race” for superiority. The two countries successfully demonstrated key milestones of “lunar soft-landing” and “sample returns capabilities”. NASA went one step ahead and demonstrated “crewed landing capability” as well. USA remain the only country to have demonstrated maned moon mission capability.
Efter 1978 var det ett lugn i över ett decennium. Inget månuppdrag skickades, och "månens ras” mellan USA och fd Sovjetunionen upphörde.
År 1990 återupptogs månuppdrag med Japans MUSES-program. För närvarande, förutom traditionella rivaler USA och Ryssland (som efterträdare till före detta Sovjetunionen som kollapsade 1991); Japan, Kina, Indien, Förenade Arabemiraten, Israel, ESA, Luxemburg och Italien har aktiva månprogram. Av dessa har Kina och Indien gjort särskilt betydande framsteg i sina månprogram.
China’s lunar programme started in 2007 with launch of Chang’e 1. In 2013, Chang’e 3 mission demonstrated China’s soft-landing capability. China’s last lunar mission Chang’e 5 achieved “sample return capability” in 2020. Currently, China is in process of launching crewed måne mission. India’s lunar programme, on the other hand, began in 2008 with Chandrayaan 1. After a gap of 11 years, Chandrayaan 2 was launched in 2019 but this mission could not achieve lunar soft-landing capability. On 23rd Augusti 2023, Indiens månlandare Vikram of Chandrayaan-3 uppdrag säkert mjuklandat på hög latitud månens yta på sydpolen. Detta var det första månuppdraget att landa på månens sydpol. I och med detta blev Indien det fjärde landet (efter USA, Ryssland och Kina) som har kapacitet för mjuklandning på månen.
Since 1990 when moon missions restarted, a total of 47 missions have been sent to the måne so far. This decade (i.e., 2020s) alone has already seen 19 moon missions. The key players have ambitious plans. NASA intends to build basecamp and related lunar infrastructure to re-establish human presence on moon in 2025 under Artemis program in collaboration with Canada, ESA and India. Russia is has announced to remain in lunar race following failure of her recent Luna 25 mission. China is to send crewed mission and has plans to establish a research station on the moon’s south pole by 2029 in collaboration with Russia. India’s Chandrayaan mission is considered as a steppingstone towards ISRO:s framtida interplanetär missions. Several other national plats agencies are striving to achieve lunar milestones. Clearly, there is a renewed interest in moon missions hence the impression of “Lunar Race 2.0”
Varför förnyade nationers intressen i månuppdrag?
Uppdrag till måne are considered steppingstones towards interplanetär missions. Utilisation of lunar resources will be crucial in future colonisation of plats (possibility of massutrotning in future due to natural disasters like volcanic eruption or asteroid impact or due to manmade conditions like climate change or nuclear or biological conflict could not be completely rules out. Spreading out into plats to become a multi-planet species is an important long-term consideration before humanity. NASA: s Artemis program is one such beginning towards future colonisation of plats). Deep plats human habitation will very much depend on acquisition of ability to exploit extraterrestrial energy and mineral resources in the solar system to support and sustain crewed missions and plats bostäder1.
As the nearest celestial body, måne offers many advantages. It has variety of minerals and materials that can be used to produce propellants for plats transportation, solar power facilities, industrial plants and structures for human habitations2. Water is very crucial for long-term human habitations in plats. There is definitive evidence of water ice in the polar regions of måne3 that the future lunar bases can utilise to support human habitation. Water can also be used to produce rocket propellants locally on the måne which will make space exploration economical. In view of its low gravity, måne can serve as more efficient launching site for missions to mars och andra himlakroppar.
Månen also has huge potential of “space energy” (i.e., energy resources in outer space) that promises a way forward to the burgeoning energy needs of growing global economy (through supplementing conventional energy supplies on Earth) and the need of an outer space-based energy source for future space explorations. Because of lack of atmosfär and abundant supply of sunlight, måne is eminently suitable for setting up solar power stations independent of earth’s biosphere that would supply cheap and clean energy to global economy. Collectors on lunar surface can convert sunlight into microwave or laser which could be directed to the Earth-based receivers to convert into electricity4,5.
Framgångsrika rymdprogram binder känslomässigt samman medborgare, befäster nationalism och har varit källor till nationell stolthet och patriotism. Mån- och marsuppdrag har också tjänat länder i att söka och återta maktstatus i nationernas gemenskap, särskilt i den nya multipolära världsordningen sedan slutet på kalla kriget och Sovjetunionens kollaps. Det kinesiska månprogrammet är ett exempel6.
Perhaps, one of key drivers of lunar race 2.0 is strategic rivalry between the United States and the ambitious China in the new world order. There are two main aspects of the rivalry: “crewed mars missions along with lunar basecamps” and “weaponisation of space” resulting in development of space-based weapon/ defence systems7. The idea of common ownership of outer space is likely to be challenged by the Artemis måne uppdrag8 banbrytande av USA och dess internationella partner som Kanada, ESA och Indien. Kina har också planerat ett liknande besättningsuppdrag och en forskningsstation på månens sydpol i samarbete med Ryssland. Intressant nog landade Indiens Chandrayaan 3 nyligen mjukt på månens sydpol. Det finns indikationer på samarbete mellan Indien och Japan för framtida månuppdrag.
Den strategiska rivaliteten mellan nyckelaktörerna i kombination med ackumulerande spänningar över andra faktorer (som Kinas gränstvister med Indien, Japan, Taiwan och andra länder) har potential att påskynda rymdkonflikter och beväpning av yttre rymden. Rymdteknik har dubbel användning och kan användas som rymdvapen. Laservapen av rymdsystem9 skulle särskilt störa internationell fred och harmoni.
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Referenser:
- Ambrose WA, Reilly JF och Peters DC, 2013. Energiresurser för mänsklig bosättning i solsystemet och jordens framtid i rymden. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1306/M1011336
- Ambrose WA 2013. Betydelsen av månens vattenis och andra mineralresurser för raketdrivmedel och mänsklig bosättning av månen. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1306/13361567M1013540
- Li S., et al, 2018. Direkta bevis på ytexponerad vattenis i månens polarområden. Jord-, atmosfär- och planetvetenskap. 20 augusti 2018, 115 (36) 8907-8912. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1802345115
- Criswell DR 2013. Sol-Måne-Jord Solar-elektriskt kraftsystem för att möjliggöra obegränsat mänskligt välstånd. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1306/13361570M1013545 & Lunar Solar Power System DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/45.489729
- Zhang T., et al, 2021. Recension om rymdenergi. Applied Energy Volume 292, 15 juni 2021, 116896. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116896
- Lagerkvist J., 2023. Lojalitet mot nationen: Lunar and Martian Exploration for Lasting Greatness. Publicerad 22 augusti 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-40037-7_4
- Zanidis T., 2023. The New Space Race: Between the Great Powers of our Era. Vol. 4 nr 1 (2023): HAPSc Policy Briefs Series. Publicerad: 29 juni 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12681/hapscpbs.35187
- Hanssen, SGL 2023. Sikta på månen: Utforska den geopolitiska betydelsen av Artemis-programmet. UiT Munin. Tillgänglig på https://hdl.handle.net/10037/29664
- Adkison, TCL 2023. Laser Weaponization Technologies of Space Systems in Outer Space Warfare: A Qualitative Study. Colorado Technical University avhandlingar. Tillgänglig på https://www.proquest.com/openview/a982160c4a95f6683507078a7f3c946a/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y
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